HBoS and RBS
Shares in HBoS and the Royal have been severely hit in the last two days. Along with Standard Life and Scottish Widows, these companies comprise the cream of Scotland's financial sector and are two of the largest employers here in Edinburgh.
I have no idea what the real underlying strengths and weaknesses of these banks may be, but I am certainly worried. I have an ISA with HBoS although I withdrew 40% of it a year ago when the last panic took place. That money was subsequently invested in a Euro deposit account that's done quite well since then.
I don't really expect that either HBos or the Royal would be allowed to go under: such an outcome would lead to a collapse in the British economy from which recovery would be extraordinarily difficult. But what if either company were to be taken over? Perhaps by HSBC who seem to be the soundest bank in the UK at present? Surely the Edinburgh economy would suffer. Loss of top jobs is always a problem and just how much back office work would remain? Some, but perhaps not all. The knock-on effect would be huge.
Then there's the political question. Would the loss of one or both of Scotland's banks benefit Labour or the SNP? Surely Labour would argue that such an event showed that the Union was all the more necessary. A Scotland that was unable to keep its major financial institutions would need to look to London for its security. Or would Scots blame Labour for what had happened and be even more likely to want to go it alone? I don't know but the situation sure is interesting.
posted by David Farrer at 22:01
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